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2023 was most certainly volatile for the markets, riding the waves of different narratives. From the biggest banks collapsing, and crypto major players facing unprecedented circumstances – it’s definitely been a tough year for the markets..
Bitcoin: The Talk of the Town
More specifically, crypto markets have been somewhat in a fiasco for the past week and a half, with BTC hitting an all-time high level not witnessed in 17 months.
October has stayed true to its name by producing an upswing in the crypto market, with excitement around a potential U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.
With Bitcoin rallying from a low of $27.1k to a high of $35.1k, a sense of optimism is taking over the markets, as the rally has resulted in significant returns for investors.
While this past month was great, the party is most likely not over yet – especially with November being the best performing month for the coin historically.
- From the 23rd of October to the 1st of November BTC price action has gained up to 17.55%.
- The month of October saw a total rise of 28.47% and the largest gain since January this year.
- BTC’s historical data shows that the best month in terms of performance is November, which suggests more upward potential in the upcoming month.
The Famous Question: What’s Behind the Sudden Surge?
Analysts were quick to jump on conclusions as to why the sudden surge in price happened, but no final confirmation has been given to the public yet.
The price pump arrived just in time to save the Bitcoin’s “Uptober” narrative. While dismissed by many market analysts as a coincidence, there is still some truth to this speculation.
For this Uptober, the truth behind the sudden surge in BTC’s price is mostly linked to the possibility of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
To put things into perspective, a spot Bitcoin ETF is seen by many crypto enthusiasts as something of a silver bullet to the industry.
Additionally, what might have also been the reason behind this aggressive pump is a false rumour about a Bitcoin ETF approval, which sent the prices soaring.
October 16th, 2023 – back to where it all started.
- Overshadowed by fake news of a BTC ETF approval, Bitcoin jumped above $30K, leading to nearly $100 million in liquidations in just a few hours.
- Despite the fake tweet being deleted shortly, it still sparked enough interactions to trigger the markets significantly.
- Looking at the 15min chart following minutes immediately after the tweet has been posted, we saw price action rise as much as 7.8% at the time of the tweet.
- Volume was positive to the upside for the first 15 minutes, followed by massive amounts of selling pressure on the next candlestick.
- BTC still ended the day with a 4% gain.
Not only did these rumours trigger Bitcoin’s prices, but we are also witnessing a noticeable increase in BTC interest.
- Bitcoin’s Wikipedia page has recorded nearly 13,500 visits as of October 24 – the highest since June 2022.
- “Should I buy Bitcoin?” is now trending on google search, as more people are finding themselves interested in the coin.
Road to the Next Bull Run?
With Bitcoin’s resurgence, the crypto community is flooding with speculations about what the future holds, including the possibility of a new bull run.
Growing recognition of BTC as a store of value and its role as digital gold supports a positive long-term outlook. We can expect momentum to carry on, and eventually see room for higher prices into 2024.
The current setup is the most bullish it has been since January, back to when BTC climbed above the $20k range.
The key levels drawn on the chart below represent resistance areas where price action needs to break in order to move into a higher range.
- We see $38k as Bitcoin’s first step towards sneaking into a bullish trend – this is most likely to happen with the launch of the first spot ETF, and BlackRock seeding the product with the initial funding.
- Thereafter, price action will set its sights to attack the $45k area as institutional investors deploy capital into the ETF.
- As we approach the next BTC halving expected in April 2024, this could provide the inflows needed to enter the $45k-$51k range.
- Moving into Q1 2024 – the Bitcoin halving will be completed, and we can predict this to drive price action above $51k, with the new target being $58k.
- A macroeconomic shift is to be expected in Q2 2024 with rate cuts projected to come in June 2024.
- This dovish change from the Fed will be bullish for BTC and may be the support the digital asset needs to start making a charge on the all-time high.
This article is for informational purposes only and not intended as investment or financial advice. It contains opinions and speculations that are subject to change without notice. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for decisions made based on the content of this article. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.